The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century.  相似文献   

北京地区静稳天气综合指数的初步构建及其在环境气象中的应用   总被引：10，自引：4，他引：6  

张恒德  张碧辉  吕梦瑶  安林昌 《气象》2017,43(8):998-1004

静稳天气与大气重污染的发生有紧密联系,为定量描述大气的静稳程度,文章研发了静稳天气综合指数。结合统计和预报经验,挑选发生大气污染的气象要素及其阈值条件,通过权重求和得到初步构建静稳天气指数(SWI)。此后,基于近13年的气象数据,分段统计各气象要素不同区间内雾-霾天气出现概率相对气候态的倍数作为分指数,根据分指数最大值和最小值的比值排序,得到10个对静稳天气具有较强指示意义的气象要素,对这10个要素的分指数求和得到静稳天气指数。改进后的指数和PM_(2.5)浓度有更好的相关性。以2015年1月一次重污染过程为例,分析不同阶段SWI和AQI指数的变化,两者具有较好的一致性,均表现出发展阶段稳定增长,消散阶段迅速降低的特征。应用静稳天气指数评估发现,APEC减排期间京津冀地区大气静稳程度和减排之前相当,但污染持续时间和峰值强度较减排前明显降低。SWI可以在重污染天气预报和重大活动减排措施评估中得到有效应用。  相似文献   

INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS WITH PAPRIKA PEPPER IN HAINAN PROVINCE     

张蕾  霍治国  张立祯  黄大鹏 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2017,23(3):334-344

Paprika pepper, as one of the main vegetable crops, is originated in the tropics and now widely planted in the world for its dietary therapy and medicinal functions. For its typical physiological properties referring to low tolerances to flood, drought and cold, paprika pepper often suffers from one or several disasters during its growing period, especially under tropical climate. Paprika pepper in Hainan, as a typical region of tropical climate in China, sustains flood, chilling and drought disaster risks induced by varied weather systems. This study was to develop and employ appropriate indices to assess hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability and prevention capability for major disasters during paprika pepper growth period, using long-term meteorological data from 1998 to 2011, actual disasters record from 1999 to 2011, production and socioeconomic statistics from 2002 to 2011 at 18 weather stations. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy method, the combined weight was given to each disaster factor, thus an integrated disaster risk assessment model was developed and applied at regional level. High flood hazard mainly occurred in eastern Hainan, high chilling hazard in north and central mountain areas, and high drought hazard in the western part of Hainan. Drought and chilling sensitivity had a similar spatial distribution which decreased from central to coastal regions while flood sensitivity was the opposite. High vulnerability of the disasters mainly occurred in central regions, similar to low prevention capability. Eastern Hainan suffered from high integrated damage risk. The predicted damage occurrence showed a good agreement with the occurrence of actual disasters. We concluded that an integrated damage risk assessment model could provide a new tool to assess major meteorological disasters and help farmers and policy makers to alleviate the risks of major meteorological disasters for paprika pepper, which seems also suitable for other crops.  相似文献   

宁波市地下空间开发利用地质环境适宜性评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵团芝  侯艳声  胡新锋 《城市地质》2016,(4):88-93

随着城市化建设快速推进,地下空间资源开发是解决城市土地资源紧张的合理途径,而地质环境适宜性评价对地下空间的开发利用具有至关重要的作用。本文分析了城市地下空间开发利用地质环境适宜性评价的影响因素,运用层次分析法确定岩土体特征、水文地质条件、环境地质问题、技术经济等指标因素的权重,建立模糊综合评价模型,定量评价宁波东部新城浅层(-15~0m)和中层(-30~-15m)的地下空间开发利用地质环境适宜程度。评价结果显示,东部新城地下空间开发地质环境适宜性等级分为Ⅱ级较适宜和Ⅲ级较不适宜,并根据不同的适宜等级提出了地下空间开发利用方式,为宁波东部新城的地下空间开发利用提供依据。  相似文献   

北方某经济开发区地下水污染调查评价     

江岳  马宏  石思宇  肖寒  赵杰  张洁 《城市地质》2016,(4)

本文应用污染指数法,对北方某经济开发区及周边地下水水质进行了污染评价,结果表明研究区地下水水质以轻污染和中污染为主,局部地区出现较重污染,主要指标为硝酸盐氮、三氯甲烷和三氯乙烯。通过对工业废水、再生水、河水水质的检测,发现研究区地表水水质与污水处理厂再生水排放密切相关,地下水污染很可能与开发区企业排污有关。由于开发区所处位置的环境敏感性和脆弱性,建议今后在开发区及附近继续开展相关研究,进一步查明地下水的硝酸盐氮及有机污染物来源、污染途径,建立完善的监测体系,以便及时切断污染源,保障城市及当地供水安全。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地杭锦旗探区二叠系下石盒子组盒1段致密砂岩气层测井评价方法          下载免费PDF全文

张渝悦  张威 《沉积与特提斯地质》2016,36(4):53-59

通过储层"四性"关系研究,分析了鄂尔多斯盆地北部杭锦旗探区致密砂岩储层岩性对物性的控制作用及测井曲线对储层岩性、物性和含气性的响应特征。认为二叠系下石盒子组盒1段砂岩石英含量、粒度和孔隙结构是影响物性和含气性的主要因素,储层"四性"关系具有砂岩粒度与石英含量控制物性、物性控制含气性的基本特点。利用交汇图版法与双孔隙度曲线叠合法对研究区二叠系下石盒子组盒1段气层进行了综合识别。根据储层的岩性、物性、孔隙结构等参数,结合单井测试产能特征,将杭锦旗探区二叠系下石盒子组盒1段气层划分为3类进行综合评价,气层以Ⅱ类为主,其次为Ⅰ类。  相似文献   

与找矿信息量法结合的含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛矿产资源潜力评价方法的原理及应用     

浦路平  朱国器  尹意求  林锦富 《矿产与地质》2016,(3):490-495

文章介绍了以含矿网格单元为统计单位、并与找矿信息量法结合的蒙特卡洛矿产资源潜力评价方法的原理和工作步骤,以及用该法进行丹池锡多金属成矿带锡矿矿产资源潜力评价工作案例,表明该法可以把评价工作区的矿产空间分布信息、成矿模式和找矿模型、成矿-找矿空间信息引入蒙特卡洛方法中,无需人类专家估计矿床个数,减少了工作步骤,提高了工作效率和自动化程度,减少了因人为主观性而造成的评价误差。  相似文献   

火山岩型铀矿山环境地质调查评价方法研究     

王玮  温志坚  夏子通  邹兆庄 《铀矿地质》2016,(1):60-64

通过对典型火山岩型铀矿山及周边地区的环境地质调查及样品分析测试,厘定矿山放射性气态、液态、固态源项特征及分布,开展放射性迁移循环途径研究及矿山周边公众潜在附加剂量评价研究,初步建立放射性矿山环境地质调查评价体系。结果表明,该研究可以为查明火山岩型铀矿山开发过程中对环境介质的影响程度和范围提供方法指导。  相似文献   

三级GPS大地控制网观测数据质量检测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李辉  李建文  高海荣 《测绘科学技术学报》2007,24(2):139-141

介绍了观测数据质量检测在三级GPS大地控制网施测中的重要作用以及观测数据质量检测方法.在此基础上,给出了观测数据质量检测的各种不同指标的定义,并讨论了相互关系;利用TEQC(Translate Edit Quality Check)软件对三级GPS大地控制网青海测区48个测点实测数据进行了质量检测,并结合基线解算结果进行了统计分析.  相似文献   

Spatial distribution of cadmium and lead in the sediments of the western Anzali wetlands on the coast of the Caspian Sea (Iran)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Rasool Zamani-Ahmadmahmoodi  Abbas Esmaili-Sari  Jahangard Mohammadi  Alireza Riyahi Bakhtiari  Mozhgan Savabieasfahani 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

Spatial distribution patterns of total cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb), their bioavailable fractions and total organic matter in sediment from Anzali wetlands are provided. Total sediment Pb was higher than Cd (34.95 versus 0.024 μg/g dry weight). The geoaccumulation index indicated that the sediment was “uncontaminated”, but some stations were categorized as “unpolluted” to “moderately polluted”. Less than 0.01 of Pb existed in exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The sum of exchangeable and carbonate-bound fractions of Cd was 42%, suggesting that Cd poses high risk to the aquatic ecosystems. Total Cd and Pb exhibited positive relationships with total organic matter. Considering spatial distribution maps of total and bioavailable fractions of metals suggested that high concentrations of metals does not necessarily indicate high bioavailable fraction. The methodologies we used in this study can be in more effective management of aquatic ecosystems, as well as ecological risk assessment of metals, and remediation programs.  相似文献